Pathogen Modeling Programs

Model name



American Meat Institute Process Lethality Determination Spreadsheet (PDF 35 KB)

The model provides meat processors with a science-based validation tool that can be used to demonstrate the effectiveness of a specific heat process to destroy microorganisms of concern.

ComBase Predictor (requires login/registration) 



ComBase Predictor models are based on observations made in culture media, and comprise a set of 20 growth models, seven thermal death models and two non thermal survival models.  Temperature, pH and aw (usually as a function of NaCl) are the core factors but, for some organisms, the effect of a fourth factor, such as CO2, nitrite, etc. are also featured.

COMBASE Modeling Toolbox 

A collection of software tools to predict microbial responses to temperature, pH, water activity, etc.

Isothermal-Based Prediction Tool, IBPT

The software can be used to predict whether Salmonella, E. coli O157:H7, or S. aureus will grow to a “level of concern” in raw beef and pork products.

Microbial Responses Viewer (MRV) for Combase

The MRV is a new database consisting of microbial growth/no growth data derived from ComBase.  The software allows the user to rapidly view growth/no growth contour plots superimposed by actual ComBase data.  Contours of any two of three variables (temperature, pH and water activity) can be visualized, while the third is held constant.

Corbion Listeria Control Model 2017 

The model predicts Listeria outgrowth based on both uncured and cured cooked meat products. The model will help to calculate the level of lactate and diacetate needed to control Listeria in cured and uncured cooked meat and poultry products for their required shelf life.

USDA Pathogen Modeling Program

This predictive microbiology application was designed as a research and instructional tool for estimating the effects of multiple variables on the growth, inactivation or survival of foodborne pathogens.  Most of the models are based on experimental data of microbial behavior in liquid microbiological media.

Perfringens Predictor  (can be downloaded at this page)

Perfringens Predictor provides a prediction of growth of C. perfringens during the cooling of meats.  This model is part of ComBase predictor, and may give more accurate predictions than the C. perfringens model included in PMP (99, Schaffner, personal communication).

Risk Management Tool for the Control of Campylobacter and Salmonella in Chicken Meat (Version 1.0)  This tool has been developed in response to a request from the Codex Committee on Food Hygiene and is designed to be used in conjunction with the Codex Guidelines for the Control of Campylobacter and Salmonella in chicken meat.

Food Spoilage and Safety Predictor, FSSP v 4.0

Extensive models to predict the simultaneous growth of Listeria monocytogenes and lactic acid bacteria in chilled seafood, meat products and cottage cheese (FSSP for Windows).A generic model to predict growth of microorganisms in food depending on temperature, salt (NaCl/aw), pH, CO2, smoke intensity, nitrite and organic acids: Acetic/diacetate, benzoic, citric, lactic and sorbic acids (FSSP for Windows and OS X).